WhoScored Tipster: Premier League Final Day Special
With 5 teams unable to move positions and only 2 sides playing games of any real significance, the final day of the 2012/13 Premier League season has little riding on it. If Arsenal win their trip to Newcastle, Spurs cannot catch them and that will be that in the race for fourth spot. However, with 10 games kicking off at the same time on the one occasion they do all season, there will be excitement to be had, and here the WhoScored tipster rounds things up with a Premier League final day special.
At St James' Park, Arsenal have no choice but to go all out attack as they chase an all important victory in their quest to secure Champions League qualification or possibly even oust Chelsea in third. The Gunners are in fine form, having won 7 of their last 9 league games, including their last 4 on the road. They haven't won 5 on the road since 2004, but that is unlikely to phase them against a side they beat 7-3 earlier this season. The high scoring nature of that game was in keeping with recent meetings between the teams, 8 of the last 10 having gone over 2.5 goals. Furthermore, 7 of Newcastle's last 8 home games have seen at least 3 goals, with the Magpies having shipped 9 goals in their last 2 home games. Arsenal should take advantage of a out of form - and now safe to survive - Newcastle side, with over 2.5 goals a decent bet at 1.50.
Rivals Tottenham will be relying on Arsenal slipping up, and will have to do their bit and beat Sunderland at White Hart Lane if they are to stand any chance of making the Champions League. They have a good recent record against the Black Cats, and have been in fine fettle of late, with Emmanuel Adebayor finally hitting (a relative level of) form at this late stage in the campaign. He scored a fantastic goal against Chelsea before netting the winner against Stoke, and looks to be growing in confidence. Having scored 5 goals in his last 6 Premier League games in the month of May, and with Spurs desperately in need of a win, Adebayor could well net again, with odds of 2.00 on him doing so.
Sir Alex Ferguson faces his final game in charge of Manchester United on Sunday, against a West Brom team who have never beaten the Red Devils in 13 Premier League meetings. Not only that, they have lost 11 of those matches and Ferguson will be keen to go out with a win. United have scored at least twice in their last 10 games against the Baggies, who, meanwhile, may well be satisfied that they have already reached their highest ever Premier League points tally. At odds of 1.83, United are certainly worth backing to win.
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea need a win against Everton to guarantee themselves 3rd place in the table, though Ferguson's replacement, David Moyes, will hope that he can leave with an impressive victory. However, Chelsea could take advantage of their superiority in the air; only Wigan have conceded more headed goals (15) in the Premier League this season than Moyes' men (14), while Chelsea have scored more headers (16) than any other side. With John Terry - who has scored the highest proportion of those goals (4) - out injured, Frank Lampard will hope to follow up the news of his contract extension with a goal, and having scored 3 headers this season, as well as twice against Aston Villa last week, he could be in with a good chance of netting again, at odds of 2.25 to score anytime.
Arguably the best bet of the day is available at Anfield, where Liverpool host QPR. The already relegated R's have scored only 1 goal - a penalty - in their last 455 minutes of gametime, while Liverpool are the Premier League's top scorers since the turn of the year (39 goals). They have also kept clean sheets in 10 of their last 15 outings on home soil and have won 4 of their last 5 at home to QPR. Everything points to a home win to nil, and odds of 2.10 make that a worthwhile bet.
Wigan vs Aston Villa was set to be a huge game at the bottom before the Latics' second half capitulation at Arsenal. Now, with nothing but pride to play for, we could see an entertaining tie in a relaxed atmosphere. With no Christian Benteke for the visitors though, there will be a greater onus on Gabby Agbonlahor for goals. He has hit form of late, scoring 6 times in his last 8 appearances, and this weekend he faces a team against whom he has a good record. Having only scored more Premier League goals against Everton (7) than he has against Wigan (5 - 3 of which have come at the DW Stadium), Agbolahor is a decent shout to score anytime on Sunday, at odds of 3.00.
Manchester City have scored 15 goals in their last 3 games against Norwich, and will be looking to end their season on a high with another goal-filled win over the Canaries. Their visitors on Sunday could drop down to 17th if they lose, but otherwise have little to play for and could surrender meekly. They have only scored twice in their last 7 away games, and so City are likely to win by a couple of goals. With a (-1) handicap, City can be backed at 1.70.
Swansea should extend Fulham's terrible run of 5 consecutive defeats in the league with a win over a side they have only ever beaten in the Premier League. That may only be 3 meetings, but the away side have been so poor lately that little other than a home win can be expected at 1.83. Meanwhile, off-song Southampton host abject Stoke at St Mary's in what could well be a dire affair. Both teams are safe but have struggled awfully for goals in recent weeks; Southampton have scored just once in their last six and a half hours while Stoke have netted just 5 times in their last 10 games on the road. Under 2.5 goals, at odds of 1.67, is a likely occurrence.
West Ham will hope to secure a top half finish with a positive result over Reading, who have conceded a Premier League high proportion of 39% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of games. There has been at least one goal in that timeframe in 4 of these sides' last 6 meetings, and we could see another one here. Bet on a goal between the 76th minute and full time at 1.73.
