Stats Study reveals stronger Kepa replacements for Chelsea than Edouard Mendy

 

While Chelsea have addressed a number of identified weaknesses within their squad ahead of the 2020/21 Premier League campaign, there remains one glaring priority on Frank Lampard's transfer to-do list.

Kepa Arrizabalaga is still to this day the most expensive goalkeeper ever signed by any club, but just two years into an underwhelming Blues career to say the absolute least, the Spaniard is considered surplus to requirements.

The 25-year-old, in a statement of defiance, has claimed that he wants to stay and fight for his place and ultimately his reputation, but regardless of whether Kepa stays or goes, Chelsea are desperate to sign another keeper.

A handful of names have been linked to the club over the summer, though three perhaps more than any other in recent times. Initially Ajax's Andre Onana was believed to be the top target, then Lille stopper Mike Maignan before the club appear to have settled on fellow Ligue 1 star Edouard Mendy of Rennes.

Well, as well as assessing some of the names that have been mentioned in Chelsea's hot pursuit for a new number one, we've identified a few more that could be even more appealing from a statistical point of view.

In this study we've focused on four metrics as a basic assessment of the performance of eight potential candidates to replace Kepa. Those metrics are saves per 90 minutes, goals conceded per 90 minutes, save success rate - that is the percentage of shots on target that a keeper saves - and the average number of saves each keeper has made in matches in which they have conceded one goal or less.

The latter is an attempt to level the playing field somewhat for keepers that play behind weaker defences, attributing a value to their efforts in keeping goals conceded down. After all, there are plenty of instances of keepers recording a clean sheet without having a single save to make.

 

 

The first thing that becomes immediately obvious is that Kepa endured an undeniably appalling season. Of all goalkeepers to have started at least 15 matches across the five leagues that the players in this study represent, Kepa ranked last in three of the categories being assessed. Figures of 1.67 saves per 90, 53.9 per cent save success and just 1.17 saves when conceding one goal or less were all way down on the averages of 3.11, 67.9 per cent and 2.82 respectively.

As if it weren't clear already, we've established that Chelsea definitely need a new keeper, so who should they target?

THE FAVOURITES

Keen to look to youth once more in the transfer window, at least in the goalkeeping world, Andre Onana was linked with a move to Stamford Bridge on numerous occasions over the summer. However, Chelsea's interest has seemingly cooled, and it's probably for the best in truth. The Cameroon international performs well in terms of goals conceded, shipping just 0.88 per 90, but for a title winning team that is to be expected. By contrast, his figures for saves, save success and saves when conceding one or less were all some way below the average.

Lille's Mike Maignan seemed to replace Onana as the number one target up until recently, and in terms of last season's statistics, is an upgrade on the Ajax keeper. He too performed well in terms of goals conceded and boasted a significantly improved save success rate, but his volume of saves both in general and in matches when conceding one or less we again low.

Step forward Edouard Mendy, with the Rennes stopper now reportedly at the top of Chelsea's wish list. The 28-year-old has been one of the most reliable performers in France over the last two seasons, first at Reims and now Rennes. From the chart below you will see that his profile in terms of the stats assessed here is similar to that of Maignan, but improved once more. Very strong when it comes to goals conceded and save success, he remians, however, below the averages in terms of save volumes.

 

Stats Study reveals stronger Kepa replacements for Chelsea than Edouard Mendy

 

SAFE PAIR OF HANDS

Having garnered a reputation as one of the most reliable goalkeepers in the Premier League, Nick Pope's statistics from last season certainly support that assumption. The Burnley keeper doesn't really excel in any category but is instead an incredibly steady and consistent performer. He's above the average of all keepers to start 15+ league matches last season in all categories, arguably most significantly so when conceding one goal or less, producing an impressive 3.25 saves per game in said outings.

Along with that of Pope, Ugurcan Cakir's was a name mentioned in relation to a move to the capital some months back, and based on his statistics from last season, widespread interest from across the continent is certainly understandable. Like Pope, the Turkish international is a very strong all rounder, with a near identical save success rate as the Premier League stopper but superior numbers in terms of saves per 90, goals conceded per 90 and saves when keeping the opposition to one goal or less. At just 24 years of age, he could be one that got away should the Blues not reignite their apparent interest.

UNDERAPPRECIATED ALTERNATIVES

While Chelsea having seemingly narrowed down their shortlist, the fact that they have identified two keepers from Ligue 1 begs the question as to why both Predrag Raijkovic and Walter Benitez have been overlooked. The former, at just 24, served as a superb replacement for that man Mendy in his debut season at Reims, while the latter has now impressed two seasons running as Nice's first choice.

Serbian stopper Rajkovic posted some remarkable figures for a side of Reims' modest stature, conceding just 0.67 goals per 90 and saving an outstanding 77.5 per cent of the shots on target he faced. His defence certainly played a significant role in ensuring their new number one wasn't kept too busy, but what he did have to do, Rajkovic took in his stride with ease in the most part.

By comparison, 27-year-old Walter Benitez was not quite so lucky in terms of the protection he was afforded, and as such produced considerably more saves (3.73 per 90) and conceded almost twice as many goals (1.38 per 90). His save success rate was still strong, however, while an average of 3.94 saves when conceding one goal or less hihglights his value to an at times porous Nice defence.

However, last but by no means least, a goalkeeper who has been criminally overlooked, Cagliari's Alessio Cragno has been the whole package for the last two seasons. The 26-year-old has made the cut for the Italian national squad this week and for very good reason indeed.

After an excellent 2018/19 campaign, Cragno was sidelined for the first half of last season with a shoulder injury but certainly made up for lost time upon his return. In 16 Serie A starts he averaged a whopping 4.31 saves per 90, rising further still to an exceptional 4.9 when conceding one goal or less. With another study-high figure for save success - level with Rajkovic on 77.5 per cent - the Italian was outstanding upon his return to action and needed to be to displace the impressive Robin Olsen, who had arrived as cover on loan from Roma.

In summary, while Chelsea are right to have landed on Mendy ahead of the likes of Maignan and Onana, there are plenty of options out there that would not break the bank that could arguably be a better alternative. After all, the last thing the club will want following what must go down as a monumental overspend on Kepa is another keeper that fails to live up to their billing.

Stats Study reveals stronger Kepa replacements for Chelsea than Edouard Mendy