This weekend the games with the best atmosphere and most history once again hail from Serie A, but they could be more predictable than in the past, while La Liga plays host to the biggest match of the weekend.
LIKELY BETS
Valencia vs Barcelona: AWAY WIN @ 1.53
The start to the season that Valencia have made deserves more recognition than they have been given, but the Barça front three are getting back to their frightening best, with record-breaker Messi leading the way. Valencia's meltdown in the derby against Levante will be a worry, a game they should have won. Maybe Valencia should consider putting Rodrigo up against Mathieu, who is perhaps lacking confidence, but that will be unlikely to make much difference when Messi is up against Otamendi at the other end. The WhoScored database lists 9 strengths for Barcelona, and 8 of those attacking strengths, about scoring and protecting the lead.
Celta Vigo vs Eibar: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.83
Two teams playing well face off here, with the 5th best home attack up against the 7th best away attack. Games against Barcelona and Real Madrid aside, Eibar have seen both teams score in 4 consecutive games. In the WhoScored Match Forecast the key is it being 'Likely' that Eibar will come back if they go behind.
West Bromwich vs Arsenal: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.80
It was surprising to see Dortmund fail to put the ball in the Gunners' net, because lately that hasn't been a really difficult task. However, the Germans were already through and didn't force the issue too much. There have been 5 games with both teams scoring Arsenal's last 7 Premier League games, while Wenger also has the 5th best away attack and West Brom have the 2nd worst home defence.
TEMPTING BETS
Sunderland vs Chelsea: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 2.10
There are not really any doubts about Chelsea winning this one, but the real value here is on both teams scoring. Each of the Blues’ 6 Premier League games this season has seen both teams find the back of the net.
Roma vs Inter: HOME WIN @ 1.75
If Torino are suffering from scheduling woes, then Inter’s must be worse. They travel to the Olimpico having played 48 hours after Roma in Europa League, where they fielded a strong starting XI in their win over Dnipro. The home side will be looking to put their Champions League problems behind them after falling to a late draw in Moscow on Tuesday.
Roberto Mancini has brought confidence and enthusiasm to the team, but while this was an asset against Milan, Roma will look to expose Mancini’s tactical inadequacies. Inter must avoid applying too much pressure on the Roma midfield and limit the hosts’ goalscoring chances from distance, though the visitors must be wary of the space Gervinho will open up for Miralem Pjanjc to exploit. However, Roma have been prone to losing focus late on in games this season, so for Inter, a lot rests on the shoulders of Mauro Icardi capitalising on Davide Astori’s poor concentration, a WhoScored weakness of his.
Juventus vs Torino: JUVENTUS TO WIN (-1.5 HANDICAP) @ 1.85
The worst thing that could happen to Torino was to play in the Europa League 24 hours after Juventus in the Champions League, especially when taking into account their squad strength compared to the Bianconeri. It’s worth noting that Torino have failed to score in the derby for 12 years and have not won this match for 19. The WhoScored Match Forecast does not favour the visitors.
Toro boss Giampiero Ventura will use a compact defensive game in order to stifle Carlos Tévez and Fernando Llorente, but the problem is the number of goals Juventus score from midfield, in particular through an improving Paul Pogba. The hosts are unlikely to not score more than 1 goal here, while the away side cannot rely on the goals of Fabio Quagliarella to help come away from the Juventus Stadium with a respectable result.
LONG-SHOT BETS
Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.87
Nowadays nobody would take the option of an 'under 2.5 goals' bet on a Bayern's game too seriously. However, they would be wrong to rule it out, as such a result has occurred in 4 of Bayern's last 5 away games in the Bundesliga.
Wolfsburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.25
It seems like blasphemy that in both Bundesliga games selected we are suggesting few goals. However, Wolfsburg and Gladbach had pretty demanding matches in Europa League, and this match sees the second best home defence face the second best overall in Germany's top-flight.
Evian vs Guingamp: HOME WIN @ 2.15
Guingamp have too been hit hard by their Europa League exertions, shown by the 3 defeats they they have suffered in their last 4 Ligue 1 games. It's not that Evian represent an unbeatable opponent, but 10 of their 13 points have been won at home. There is only one outcome indicated by the WhoScored match forecast, but it is deemed 'very likely' that Evian will score from a set piece situation.
What are your top tips for this weekend's action? Let us know in the comments below
