Sam Allardyce summed it up as bluntly as you would expect.
As the West Ham United manager reflected on the latest home defeat, the 3-0 loss to Chelsea in mid-November, he let out a sigh. “Ultimately, I know one thing that will change our dynamics a massive amount, but I can’t have him - and that’s Andy Carroll.”
The mention of the forward offered no new insight, but the reference to “dynamics” was interesting. The key, perhaps, is what effect the lack of that final outlet has on the rest of their game.
There is clearly something, given that it is not just their attack that has been affected. Whereas West Ham scored an average of 1.18 goals per game last season, that has dropped to 0.87 this term. It has impacted most on their home form, which was the basis of such a respectable campaign over 2012/13. West Ham have scored much less frequently on home soil, in this case dropping from 1.79 goals per game last season to 1.14; they have conceded much more, a rise from 1.16 to 1.43; and have ultimately secured fewer points - just 1 per game in contrast to 1.74 last season.
While the small sample size of games warrants mentioning, Allardyce himself has already lamented the fact his side have already lost as many times in those seven games (4) as they did in all of last season. He has repeatedly revealed himself in the past as a manager who sees specific games as targeted draws and victories, with unexpected wins as “points bonuses” and unanticipated defeats as undeniable checks.
While West Ham have been unlucky in that regard to face Manchester City and Chelsea sides who were much improved in attack from 2012/13 - especially given that Allardyce claimed four points and conceded just one goal against both of those outfits last season - the understandable nature of those performances was offset by the manner in which they lost 1-0 to Stoke and conceded 3 to an Everton team who had at that early point of the campaign been struggling for goals.
In short, if the losses to Chelsea and Manchester City were ultimately forgivable, it does seem like West Ham aren’t quite posing the same awkward challenge as last season; that they are a little softer. Again, it was something that Allardyce spoke out about after the defeat to Chelsea.
So, what do the stats state? What are West Ham doing differently at home this season - other than failing to hit an outlet like Carroll? There does seem to be a very slight shift. They have actually kept possession more, going up from 43.2% to 45.2%, and their passing success has increased from 74.5% to 77.6%.
While this should in theory point to an evolution in their game, it seems to only further reveal that absence of options. As has been seen from a few times that the likes of Stewart Downing or Matt Jarvis has had the ball around the edge of box and forlornly looked up, there has been no-one to aim for. This has meant West Ham have played fewer crosses per game - 29 to 25; and had fewer shots - 14.1 down to 13.7.
The breakdown of such moves without posing an actual threat does in turn appear to have left them that little more open, with the defence forced into more tackles per game.
Compounding all of that, then, are two issues. First of all, there is the deterioration of confidence when you cannot attack with conviction. Again, it was something Allardyce referenced after the Chelsea defeat, that there’s a “fear factor” which has meant certain moves and passes are that bit more hesitant.
It could be seen in that match as soon as Frank Lampard hit the opening penalty. Prior to the Guy Demel handball which brought it, West Ham had been rather comfortable in their defensive approach. After it, once Chelsea had gone ahead, it seemed sitting back and hoping for a counter was futile, it was as if they had nothing left to offer.
Secondly, there is the issue that led to errors like Demel’s in the first place. Of late, West Ham have lacked last season’s defensive lynchpin, Winston Reid. The New Zealand centre-half offered the most tackles (1.9), interceptions (2) and fouls (1.1) per game of the entire Allardyce backline throughout the 2012/13 season, and is still ahead this campaign in terms of interceptions (2.8) and fouls (1.8).
He evidently offers extra security that is not there at present on the pitchm and if he hadn't got injured they would surely be higher up the table. The stats indicate that, once he and Carroll return, normal service should be resumed. West Ham should have enough to avoid a relegation battle, unless this period harms confidence in the long term, but also Allardyce needs to work out a few alternative options.
Can West Ham turn things around without Carroll and Reid, or are they relying on their return? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
