Who will score most points in gameweeks 1-4 of Fantasy Premier League?

At Fantasy Football Hub they are really pulling out all the stops this year. In addition to their new app, OPTA Stats and Comparison Tool they have taken it a step further and released a brand new Points Prediction Tool, powered by massive data.

Massive Data predictions are built from a Machine Learning model which is fed high-quality contextual information about the player and teams performance levels. This model comfortably outperforms inferences from bookmaker anytime scorer odds. Let’s get into the top seven scoring players according to this new tool.

Mohammed Salah (£12.0m) – Liverpool

It’s not surprising to see the Egyptian King as the top expected points scorer for the first four Gameweeks. Despite playing Chelsea and Arsenal in Gameweeks two and three, he sits top with an expected points of 23.7, and is also number one for expected points in Gameweek one alone (6.8) where Liverpool host Leeds United. It’s hard to argue against picking the Liverpool forward for your fantasy football team from the off and I suspect he will also be the most captained player in FPL in Gameweek one.

Sadio Mane (£12.0m) – Liverpool

Again not a surprise to see Mane come in at second place. His stats are not as good as Salah’s, so comes slightly behind to score 21.5 points in the first four Gameweeks and 6.3 points for Gameweek one alone. He does have a slightly higher assist threat of 1.2 compared to 1.1 but this is offset by Mohammed’s superior goal threat of 1.9 compared to 1.6. Mane could be a good pick if you are picking him alongside Salah but the points predictor tool suggests not to pick him instead, as their prices are the same this year. If you are planning an early Wildcard then a double up is not the worst idea in the world.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) - Arsenal

 The Arsenal talisman comes in at number three with 20.7 expected points from Gameweeks one to four, and 5.9 points for Gameweek one alone where he plays Fulham (a). There may be some suprise to see such a difference between him and Salah for Gameweek one but the home factor for the Egyptian is playing a part here. He actually sits joint top with Salah for expected points for the first two Gameweeks (11.7). As well as playing Fulham (a) in Gameweek one, Arsenal have a plum game in West Ham United (h) in Gameweek two. As you can see it’s the Liverpool game in their third fixture which brings his total for the first four Gameweeks right down. He remains a must own for the first two game, however.

Timo Werner (£9.5m) – Chelsea

Fourth for top expected points scorer for the first four is Chelsea’s new signing Timo Werner at 20.3 points. And he actually comes in at number one out of all the forwards in FPL. Despite playing Liverpool in Gameweek two the algorithm rates him well. At only £9.5m when the likes of Harry Kane (£10.5m) and Jamie Vardy (£10.0) are more expensive, it makes him a must own as your first premium striker slot. With 28 goals he finished as the second highest scorer in the Bundesliga last term and he even managed eight assists, which shows he can do more than just score. He is an all-round striker and this shows in the points prediction tool as it also ranks him highest for expected assists out of all forwards. Furthermore with Chelsea’s firepower in Christian Pulisic (£8.5m), and new arrivals Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m) and Kai Havertz he won’t be devoid of quality service.

Harry Kane (£10.5m) – Spurs

The Spurs man comes in at number five with an expected points of 19.5, and 5.3 for Gameweek one. With Everton (h), Southampton (a), Newcastle (h) and Man United (a) in the first four, one can see him scoring well in the first three. With him being on penalties and an absolute nailed option to start he’s another great option as Spurs fixtures right through to Gameweek eight are good, meeting just one of last season’s top eight sides in the that period. If he keeps up his form from post restart last season from Gameweeks 30 – 38 he could be a very shrewd pick. He scored seven goals in the nine games following the restart, joint-top among all the forwards. Also, he doesn’t have a blank fixture in Gameweek one so can be used as an Aguero (£10.5m) placeholder if you wish.

Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) - Leicester City

Last season’s golden boot winner Jamie Vardy scored 23 goals finishing on 210 points (4th highest). At number six for the top points scorer for the first four games he comes in just behind Kane at 19.4 points, and actually slightly ahead for Gameweek one (5.4 points). Last season he had highest conversion rate of the aforementioned strikers, with 32%, and recorded 35 Big Chances, which was more than any other player in the league. Considering he is £0.5m cheaper than the Spurs forward and has arguably better fixtures, facing West Brom (a), Burnley (H), West Ham (H) and Aston Villa (H) in the first five games, it would make sense to get the Foxes forward and use the £0.5m elsewhere. Vardy is also on penalties and another guaranteed starter.

Roberto Firmino (£9.5m) – Liverpool

You might be surprised at the Liverpool forwards inclusion in this list but he is an all-round player with both goals and assist in his locker. His expected points for the first four Gameweeks is 18.4 points, and 5.2 points for Gameweek one alone. He had his worst individual season last year in a Liverpool shirt in terms of productivity in front of goal, scoring nine goals and registering nine assists. In 2018-19 he scored 12 goals and 9 assists but many of his stats were actually better last season, which showed he was a tad unlucky. With a total of 57 goals 44 assists for Liverpool in five seasons, he is as much a goal a scorer as he is a provider. The points prediction tool recognises this, which is why he is expected to score 0.9 assists - the second highest from all the forwards.

This article is brought to you by fantasy football hub. Join thousands of FPL managers and dominate your mini-league with fantasy football hub membership – WhoScored readers can use this link for 25% off (limited time offer)