Match Focus: Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Four Key Battles
The upcoming installment of El Derbi madrileño is undoubtedly the biggest in recent memory. Real Madrid are out to secure La Décima, while Atlético Madrid are looking to cap off a sensational season on the back of their title win last weekend, in turn becoming the first team to go unbeaten in a Champions League campaign since Manchester United’s European success of 2008.
Both teams will go hammer and tong to land the trophy at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon this weekend and we at WhoScored have identified four key battles that could decide the outcome on Saturday.
With Xabi Alonso suspended, Asier Illaramendi is expected to come into the Madrid midfield. Expectations of the 24-year-old are high having signed from Real Sociedad last summer for €32.2m, becoming the most expensive Spanish player in history. However, his performances in the Champions League have left a little to be desired at times.
The Spaniard has started just 2 games in the knockout stages of the competition for Los Blancos, those coming against Schalke and Borussia Dortmund when Madrid held impressive leads from the first leg. However, his average WhoScored.com rating from both games sits at a lowly 6.3, while he lasted just 45 minutes in the second leg against Dortmund, having committed an error that led to one of Marco Reus’ first half goals.
He has been defensively poor in the Champions League, averaging far fewer tackles (1.4) and interceptions per game (1.4) than Alonso (2.6 and 2.1 respectively), and it’s herein where Madrid may struggle. Gabi is expected to return to the Atlético starting XI having missed the 3-1 win over Chelsea through suspension.
Fresh from scaling Neptune in the Spanish capital, the Atleti captain has been a consistent performer under Diego Simeone this season and was crucial to Los Rojiblancos winning La Liga. Only Koke (1.8) has averaged more key passes per game than Gabi (1.6) of every Atlético player in Europe this term and with Illarramendi’s poor defensive showing in the competition, the 30-year-old could thrive in the heart of midfield.
Another major loss in the final, this time for Atletico, is that of Diego Costa. The striker suffered a hamstring tear in the opening exchanges of the 1-1 draw with Barcelona and despite Simeone suggesting he is being monitored on a day-to-day basis, it’s questionable whether he will be fit to face Madrid. Raúl Garcia is expected to take his place in attack should Costa indeed miss out, though that isn’t to say the midfielder-cum-striker is a poor stand in.
The 27-year-old has won more aerial duels per game (5.2) than any other player in the Champions League and allows for the team to be more direct when on the offensive. Furthermore, his aerial threat - a WhoScored.com strength of his - helps bring others into play, with teammates looking for the knock down to attack the opposition goal.
This could prove problematic for compatriot Sergio Ramos. The pairing are expected to come up against one another in Lisbon, but the Madrid defender may struggle to contain Garcia should Atlético opt to maximise the aerial ability of the 27-year-old.
Ramos is winning considerably fewer aerial duels per game (1.7) than Garcia, while his success rate from duels in the air (56.7%) is poor for a centre-back. While Garcia is no Diego Costa, if Atlético can get good quality delivery into the final third, their chances of winning the competition may increase significantly.
WhoScored.com discuss more key match-ups from Saturday's game with the guys over at Ball Street.
Marc Bartra will testify to the quality of Gareth Bale having been humiliated by the Welshman in the Copa Del Rey final. When the attacker gets going, he is difficult to stop, with only Cristiano Ronaldo (2.5) averaging more successful dribbles per game than Bale (2) of all Madrid players in Europe’s elite competition this season.
Bale is expected to line up on the right side of Madrid’s striking triumvirate where he should face off against Filipe Luis. The left-back was unfortunate not to be called up to Brazil’s World Cup squad on the back of an impressive campaign and has the opportunity to show Luiz Felipe Scolari why he was deserving of a place with A Seleção this summer. Luis’ number of tackles per game (2.8) in the Champions League is a commendable return and he will need to exhibit the full quality of his defensive ability at the Estádio da Luz.
However, Luis has a tendency to drift forward in support of attack, which could be exploited by Bale. Though the Brazilian has the turn of pace to return to the backline to help ease the pressure on the defence, Bale’s speed will be a major cause for concern if he is caught out of position.
The Atlético star boasts a WhoScored strength of ‘concentration’ and he will need to exhibit this to limit Bale’s impact on Saturday.
Koke is set to operate in front of Luis on the left-wing and assist his teammate at the back having gained a statistically calculated strength of ‘defensive contribution’ from WhoScored.com. The 22-year-old has averaged a notable number of tackles per game (2.9) in Europe and he will need to display this quality against Madrid.
Lining up at right-back for Los Blancos should be Daniel Carvajal. The Spain international has impressed upon his return to the Bernabeu, attacking opposition teams with aplomb and though he has completed a relatively lowly number of dribbles per game (0.7) in Europe, Carvajal has the ability to get the better of Koke on the wing.
The Atlético ace has been dribbled past more times per game (1.9) in the Champions League than any other player at the club, so while he can defend when needed, he struggles against the more skillful performers. However, Koke has averaged the most key passes per Champions League game (1.8) of every Atlético player and clearly has the ability to pick a defence splitting pass.
Nevertheless, only Álvaro Arbeloa (4) averages more tackles per game than Carvajal (3.2) of every Madrid star, so Koke may struggle to create goalscoring chances for Atlético if closely marked by his compatriot. Limiting Koke’s creativity could be decisive in the Champions League final if Madrid are to secure their 10th European title.
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