Player Focus: Van Persie Still Has Striking Statistics But Has Lost His Swagger

As Robin van Persie diverted the ball towards goal in the 22nd minute of Manchester United’s 2-1 win over West Ham United on Saturday, it was difficult not to notice that his gaze lingered on the path of the ball a little longer than usual. Watch it again if it’s escaped your attention.

It was not the look of a striker who knew the shot was going in. It was the look of someone hoping the shot was going in, of someone who needed it to go in.

That difference may be subtle, but it still marks quite a change for a forward who usually plays with such striking confidence. It certainly made a change from the swagger Van Persie displayed throughout his glorious first campaign at Old Trafford, in 2012/13.

It has all given rise to a growing question over the past few weeks, not least because he is now 31 years of age: will United ever again see the same player as in 2012/13?

That is also giving rise to a growing debate over whether Van Persie should even start. Amid all of the recent discussion about Wayne Rooney’s role, one frequent response is that the English forward has at least proven he deserves to start up front rather than a misfiring Van Persie.

Visual evidence would appear to suggest the Dutch striker is not quite as vibrantly dependable in front of goal as he was in 2012/13, that some of the edge is lost. He has just not looked so devastating or dependable.

The stats say otherwise. Even during the difficulties of last season, Van Persie was actually rather sharp.

If he did not have the same rate of goals per game (0.68 dropping to 0.57), the rate of goals per shot remained impressively high. It actually rose marginally from 18.4% to 19.4%.

He is still likelier to convert a chance more than most strikers, and certainly more than Rooney, whose best figure in terms of conversion rate over the past two years stands at 16.8%.

That is perhaps the true point of Van Persie's goal against West Ham. Although he may have needed it to start righting this season’s record, it may also see him gradually right his form, and help the striker return to his best condition. That in itself, however, leads to a wider debate.

It is also the flip side of his conversion rate, and gives rise to a more valid criticism. Van Persie’s best season at United, 2012/13, also saw him require the most shots to score. That illustrated he was a much more active player, willing to do more, and get much more involved in play.

Almost every available stat backs this up.

Van Persie now plays fewer passes and crosses, makes fewer tackles and interceptions, and dribbles less.

That is something of a shame, given that one of the joys of his 2012/13 campaign was the manner in which the forward seemed to bring play on with every touch. A feature of so many United moves during that campaign was one perceptive Van Persie pass suddenly opening up an entire side of the pitch. It may not have been as spectacular as Luis Suarez but, until the Uruguayan really accelerated in 2013/14, it was more effective. Van Persie was a supreme creative hub, for both his movement and touches as well as his goals.

Now, the most generous description of his play is that it has become more “economic” - or, to borrow a line from Spinal Tap, “more selective”. It is telling that, for all the briefness of this season’s stats, his passing accuracy (84.4%) has gone up with his shot conversion.

It is as if Van Persie is purposely less involved in open play so he is better able to do things when the ball does come. A valid question from that, however, is one that many goalscorers eventually face: at what point does the negative effect on the team’s overall game outweigh the positive effect of his precision?

Whatever the answer is here, there is at least a significant caveat: it is basically a year since Van Persie has been anything close to full fitness.

His complaints with David Moyes are now well known but, whatever the actual truth, it is difficult to dispute that he was never in his best condition throughout that season. That he kept up such a rate of scoring is remarkable, but further indicates that he may have constrained his overall game in order to do what he does best: finish.

Now, there is at least the possibility that he can return to his best physical condition. Goals like West Ham will aid that process. The real answer, however, will only come if his overall play starts to again rise to the levels of his goalscoring.

He needs to get the swagger back. Swaggering generally involves a lot more movement.

Should Van Persie be starting for United? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below