Team Focus: What Hope of a Great Escape from Sorry Villa?

What used to be impossible isn’t so any more. After Sunderland had taken 13 points from five games – including wins at Chelsea and Manchester United – to avoid relegation the season before last, their manager Gus Poyet spoke of how in future people would remember their great escape and think that yes, it can be done. Leicester City, similarly, came from a seemingly impossible position last season. So is there any hope for Aston Villa?

Remi Garde’s side haven’t won since the opening day of the season. Their tally of eight points is the third lowest after 20 games in Premier League history. In this most unpredictable of Premier League seasons, their awfulness has been a rare beacon of consistency. They’re seven points behind Sunderland in second bottom and 11 points from safety. Realistically they probably need a minimum of 27 points from the final 18 games of the season to have a chance of surviving. Although they’re unlikely to break Derby’s record low of 11 points for a season, Sunderland’s marks of 15 and 19 points are definitely within range.

The Black Cats’ survival surge had been presaged by their form in the Capital One Cup, although it ended up being inspired by a month-long purple patch from Connor Wickham. With Leicester, there was a sense all season that their performances weren’t delivering the results they probably deserved. Even then, both escapes came as a major surprise.

From an attacking point of view, Villa don’t offer even the vague glimmers of optimism that Sunderland and Leicester did. They have the third-lowest shots per game average, ahead of only West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle; in terms of shots on target, they are joint second worst. Swansea can perhaps take some solace from shots on target, their average of 3.7 better than any of the other sides in the bottom six.

There is, though, perhaps some encouragement to be drawn from defensive stats. They have conceded only 12.9 shots per game, the 11th best record in the Premier League. Of the bottom six, only Swansea concede fewer chances, while Newcastle concede more than anybody else, followed by Sunderland.

Chance concession, though, is only part of the story. In a sense, it doesn’t really matter if teams near the bottom take the odd thrashing. Far more important is how many times they concede 0 or 1 in a game; they’re the matches that will deliver points. Three of Sunderland’s four wins this season, for instance, have come in the three games in which they’ve kept clean sheets.

Considering defending like that brings further bad news for Villa: they’ve kept only two clean sheets all season, fewer than anybody else. Meanwhile there have been only eight games in which they’ve conceded fewer than two – again, the worst record in the division. Indeed, in the 5 games under Remi Garde that Villa have managed to concede less than twice they have at least managed to secure a draw in all of them.

Even worse for Villa is the fact that their relegation rivals seem to be improving defensively. Norwich may have conceded fewer than twice in a game on just 12 occasions this season, but four have been in their last five games. Newcastle have conceded fewer than two only 10 times, but haven’t done so in their last six matches. It would be reasonable to assume that when Sam Allardyce gets his own signings in at Sunderland, their defensive record will also pick up.

Villa’s best hope then is probably that Jordan Ayew enjoys the sort of run of form Wickham did two years ago. The Ghana striker has scored five goals this season, including a brilliant effort against Newcastle that snatched a point from a game in which Villa had been largely outplayed. His talent is obvious but he remains extremely inconsistent and the problem of losing the ball that dogged him last season continues. He’s been dispossessed 2.2 times per game and squandered possession with poor first touches 2.8 times per game, respectively the 16th and fourth-worst tallies in the division.

Recent precedent suggests no side can entirely be written off, but Villa’s position is looking increasingly hopeless.

Do Villa have any hope of avoiding the drop this season? Let us know in the comments below