Russia Reliant on a Good Offence Being the Best Defence

Excitement levels are rising quickly as Euro 2016 nears its kick off. Later today, France get the ball rolling in Paris when they face Romania in a bid to win their third European Championship. However, in England, supporters have to wait another 24 hours before the Three Lions kickstart their campaign. Roy Hodgson’s side begin Euro 2016 in Marseille with a meeting with Russia. Having gone through qualifying with a 100% record, supporters are confident that a win is on the cards. 

Russia, though, are not to be underestimated. While they finished second in their group behind Austria to secure a place at Euro 2016, Leonid Slutskiy, who replaced Fabio Capello as head coach in August 2015, managed four wins from the four qualifying games he oversaw. Slutskiy helped secure Russia a place in France at the same time as guiding CSKA Moscow to the Russian Premier League title.

Despite their good performances, though, Russia aren't really being considered as a dark horse at the tournament. While they are tipped to progress from Group B, some now feel it could be as the best third placed team, if at all. Injuries have robbed the national side of key players coming into the competition. Yuri Zhirkov, Alan Dzagoev and, more recently, Igor Denisov’s respective absences have forced Slutskiy to alter his plans for Euro 2016. 

Pacey attackers can capitalise upon an aging backline - expected centre-back pair Sergei Ignashevich and Vasili Berezutski have a combined age of 69 - while goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev’s struggles outside of Russian domestic football are well documented (the goalkeeper hasn’t kept a clean sheet in European action since 2006, a run of 37 matches). Yet while their defence is far from solid, their attack is capable of troubling any team. 

Russia’s strength clearly comes in the final third. The focal point comes in the form of the robust Artem Dzyuba. The powerful frontman rattled in 15 goals in the Russian Premier League last season, the fourth most in Russia’s top tier. Of those to net 20 or more Russian Premier League goals in the last three campaigns, Dzyuba has both the second best shot accuracy (50%) and conversion rate (26%), ranking behind Seydou Doumbia for each category. 

Moreover, seven of his 15 league goals were with his head last season, four more than any other player. Standing at 6’5”, Dzyuba is an imposing threat for Russia having led the Zenit St. Petersburg attack with aplomb last season. While Zenit were unable to defend their crown, the 27-year-old proved to be an astute signing for the five-time champions. Indeed, with Dzyuba leading the attack, Russia have as good a chance as any to progress from Group B. 

Slutskiy will undeniably maximise Dzyuba’s physical qualities to trouble the England defence, meaning there is an unpredictability to the way Russia play, be it a more direct approach to utilise his aerial qualities or to build through the midfield. Either way, Dzyuba has what it takes to make an impact in France. He netted eight goals in qualifying, the fourth most in the campaign, while the Russian netted a respectable six goals in the Champions League last season. Clearly unfazed on the grand stage, Dzyuba has a big role to play this summer.

He, though, won’t be shouldering the goalscoring responsibility on his own, with Slutskiy not devoid of talent on the frontline. Reports suggest the 45-year-old will line up in an attacking 4-3-3 formation against England on Saturday, with Fedor Smolov and Aleksandr Kokorin flanking the formidable Dzyuba. Kokorin, though, endured a disappointing season, netting just six times in 18 league outings having failed to have the desired impact for Dynamo Moscow and Zenit following his January switch. 

His struggles with the latter, though, was in part due to the fine form of Hulk, Danny and Oleg Shatov in the front three in Andre Villas-Boas’ side, not to mention Dzyuba quickly establishing himself as Zenit’s lead frontman. The same, though, cannot be said of Smolov, who scored more goals (20) than any other player in the Russian Premier League last season, making him one of 11 players who scored 20 more goals in Europe’s top five leagues, the Eredivisie, Super Lig and Russian Premier League who will be participating at Euro 2016. 

While his best position is as the lone striker, Smolov’s versatility in attack is a blessing for Slutskiy. The 26-year-old made 16 league and European starts on the left flank last season as FC Krasnodar secured a top-four finish in Russia's top-flight. No player scored more clear-cut goalscoring opportunities than Smolov (11), while 18 of his 20 goals came inside the 18-yard box. If he can escape his marker and make late surging runs into the penalty area, Smolov boasts the goalscoring capability to trouble any nation. 

Combined with Dzyuba and Kokorin, who remains a threat having averaged a goal every 169.7 league minutes last season, Russia can be expected to trouble their opponents in Group B. With the experienced Roman Shirokov, Oleg Shatov and youngster Aleksandr Golovin competing in support from deep, Slutskiy’s offensive trio will not be without chances to net. 

While their defensive resolve - in particular the protection to the back four - is suspect, Golovin made 3.5 tackles per 90 in the Russian Premier League last term, one of the best returns of players to make 15 or more appearances, and highlighting his WhoScored strength of ‘defensive contribution’. Nevertheless, with Russia’s poor defence, their best chance of progression is in their efficient attack.