When Paolo Di Canio took over at Sunderland with 7 Premier League games remaining, he was charged with saving the Black Cats from the dip in form which had seen them go the 8 matches previous without a win. With 2 wins during his short reign as manager, Di Canio completed his primary aim and saved Sunderland from relegation. However, after the season ended, it probably wasn't decided that next season would be another where the goal was merely to stay in the division.
Di Canio is an ambitious and confident man (amongst many other things), and he has consistently talked up the abilities of his squad, at no point even entertaining the possibility that they might actually go down. While he was right, they were mightily close. Their 17th-placed finish was their lowest in the 6 seasons since their promotion to the top flight in 2007. It was also by some distance the worst they have played in that time. Martin O'Neil's input was no longer fresh and exciting, they had stagnated, and whilst Di Canio's arrival provided a necessary and sufficient spark to spur them on to the victories over Newcastle and Everton that kept them up, there were still obvious signs of deep-seated problems, exposed brutally by Aston Villa in their 6-1 win at the end of April. Survival was the aim, and that was achieved, but now bigger changes need to be made; Di Canio will be aiming higher next season.
The summer has begun with change, but not the sort that Sunderland fans would have been hoping for. Danny Rose has returned to his parent club, Tottenham Hotspur, after a highly impressive campaign in the north-east. He was firmly established as the first choice left-back at the Stadium of Light but it seems that Andre Villas-Boas wants him back at White Hart Lane to provide competition for the erratic Benoit Assou-Ekotto.
Rose's influence on the team was vast, with his employers this season winning 28% of their Premier League games that he started, conceding 1.36 goals per game, whilst winning just 15.4% without him, shipping an average of 1.54 goals per game. That is, 7 of their meagre total of 9 wins this season came when Rose was involved from the off, while they won only 2 of the 13 matches he was unavailable for. Losing him to Spurs was to be expected after such a good season, but that is not to undermine the impact of his departure. His average rating of 6.96 was the 4th highest in the Sunderland squad; he made more interceptions (2.7 per game) than any teammate, whilst also averaging 2.3 tackles per game and 1 successful dribble, and Sunderland look set to be without one of their top performers from last season if he does return to London.
Whilst Rose was always likely to leave, things have got worse since the end of the season, with first choice 'keeper Simon Mignolet set to leave for Liverpool in the coming days. Reports are rife that the Belgian international is on the move, and while he will be an improvement for Brendan Rodgers' club, Sunderland may struggle to make do without him. Mignolet was ever-present this season - one of only 5 Premier League players that were - and the Black Cats are rather lacking in backup at present; possibly the reason that Mignolet was never rested. Keiren Westwood is a highly rated goalkeeper, but one who is wholly unproven in the top flight. He kept only 1 clean sheet in his 10 Premier League appearances in 2011/12, and conceded 11 goals in those games whilst making 22 saves. A save success rate of 66.7% in those games is decent, but with Mignolet having successfully stopped 72% of the shots on target he faced this season, Westwood would - in this regard at least - be a step down in quality.
And now it seems that Stéphane Sessegnon could be on the move too. The Benin striker may be part of the clear out at the club, despite being one of their most important players this season, starting 34 of the 35 games he was available for before his sending off at Villa Park towards the season's end. There could well be reason for such a move. Arguably, for a player of his attacking tendencies, 7 goals and 3 assists just wasn't good enough this season. He wins a lot of free-kicks; 89 in fact - no player won more in the whole top flight, whilst he also dribbles past players often; 1.7 times per game. But having directly contributed to only 10 goals, there was an end product lacking, and Di Canio has thus reportedly deemed him expendable.
Scoring goals was exactly the problem. While only 10 teams conceded fewer Premier League goals than Sunderland (54), their goals scored tally of 41 was greater only than QPR (30) and Stoke (34). Their top scorer was Steven Fletcher with 11 goals, and when he was ruled out for the rest of the season through injury, Danny Graham proved an insufficient replacement. The former Swansea man failed to score from 16 shots in 13 appearances after his January move, and there has even been murmurs that he could be on his way out of the club as well. Whilst a bit of patience has never been a bad thing, Di Canio may not be able to afford Graham much more time to prove himself.
Graham's lack of goals stems from a similarly important problem for the side; a distinct lack of creativity in their ranks. The Sunderland players created just 28 clear cut goalscoring chances all term - 3 fewer than any other team in the Premier League behind Stoke (31) and a full 60 fewer than champions Manchester United. The Black Cats relied on strikes from distance all too often, netting 8 of their 41 goals (nearly 20%) from positions outside the area; more than 10 other teams. Clearly, chances were all too few and far between, and that is something that needs to be looked at during the off season.
Sunderland's top creator was Adam Johnson, who has had a distinctly average season since his move from Manchester City last summer. Johnson laid on 1.6 chances per game, but well over a third of those came from set pieces. The same is true of Seb Larsson, who made 1 key pass per game. So while working Johnson into form would undoubtedly be beneficial, it is arguably in Sunderland's interests to prioritise the purchase of a creator to provide Fletcher and Graham with chances that they are capable of finishing.
Not only that, but Sunderland are also in desperate need of a ball playing central midfielder to aid in the retention of the ball. With an average of 43.1% possession, they ranked 19th in the Premier League, ahead only of relegated Reading. Larsson was their main man in the middle of the park, but his 83.5% pass success rate is not good enough to warrant a starting spot there, so Di Canio could do worse than to look for a new player in there.
Offloading Sessegnon is unlikely to help matters, but maybe an overhaul is what Sunderland need. Things were grinding to a halt long before the season was over this year and alterations are certainly necessary. Di Canio has started making them with the likes of Titus Bramble shipped out and David Karlsson and Modibo Diakite brought in. Those transfers, however, are unlikely to make the world of football shake, and there will be plenty more movement at the Stadium of Light before the summer is out. At least, if Rose, Mignolet and Sessegnon all leave, there really needs to be.
