Team Focus: Sides Progressing & Regressing in 2013

Although the race for the title in each of Europe’s top 5 leagues is shaping up to be somewhat of an anti-climax, with Bayern Munich already crowned Bundesliga champions, there’s still a lot to play for in the hunt for European places and the battle to avoid the drop.

WhoScored takes a look at the sides whose team ratings have seen the most drastic change, both in a positive and negative sense, since the turn of the year. While the form of the following trio should see them finish on a high, we also focus on those who would rather go on their summer holidays early after a dismal start to 2013.

Progression

Cagliari (Team Rating Increase: +0.59)

Cagliari's form since the turn of the year is among the best in Serie A, with only Milan and Napoli losing fewer league games in 2013 than the Sardinians (2). Considering they began the New Year with their 6th successive defeat following a 2-1 loss to Lazio, stretching their winless league run to 9, many would have tipped the Rossoblu to be in a relegation fight right now. Instead they have won almost a point per game more since the end of December (1.86 to 0.89), beating the likes of Roma, Fiorentina and most recently Inter in the process.

Pulga’s side haven't been more attacking, averaging fewer shots per game this year than last (11.2 to 14), but merely improved their efficiency, particularly in front of goal, upping their chance conversion rate from 6.3% to 14.6%. Defensively the team's averages for tackles (23.4) and interceptions (16.9) are both considerably improved, in turn resulting in the side conceding 1.07 goals per game in 2013 compared to 1.83 in 2012 this season.

With 6 games remaining Cagliari are on course for a top half finish, already just 1 point behind last season’s tally of 43, and Ivo Pulga’s first foray into management will have drawn some admiring glances.

Aston Villa (Team Rating Increase: +0.32)

Paul Lambert described his side as “the form team at the moment” in terms of the fight for Premier League survival, despite a fairly disappointing 1-1 draw with Fulham at the weekend. Although they dropped points at home on Saturday, the WhoScored ratings suggest that the Scot has a point.

The team have turned things around to give themselves a decent chance of staying up after a run of three games which saw them concede 15 goals, including 8 at Chelsea, and score none in return at the end of last year.

Again, the Villans can attribute their form to an increased potency in front of goal, scoring over twice as many goals per game in 2013 (1.62) compared to last year (0.75). The cause of such an improvement is of course due, in the main, to the form of Christian Benteke, who has scored more Premier League goals in the calendar year (10) than any other player.

Southampton (Team Rating Increase: +0.24)

Most were in agreement that the dismissal of Nigel Adkins was extremely harsh, but few could argue that the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t paid off for Southampton. The Saints were always capable of playing neat passing football but the pace at which they do so has improved and their high pressing, energetic style is reaping the rewards.

Now just 2 points off of the top half, the Saints are unbeaten in 5 and have beaten the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool in recent weeks. With just 3 defeats in their last 16 league matches, who’s to say that they can’t improve on their current position next season?

Regression

Malaga (Team Rating Decrease: -0.28)

To say that Malaga’s remarkable Champions League campaign has had a detrimental impact on their league form would be an understatement. In the Andalusian’s final league game of 2012 they recorded a memorable 3-2 home win against Real Madrid to move them to within two points of the reigning La Liga champions in third. Fast forward 4 months and they are now 18 points adrift of Mourinho’s side (now second), and 15 short of third placed Atletico.

Though Pellegrini’s side are not able to play in Europe next season due to a financial fair play suspension from UEFA, they would still have been keen to retain their status as one of Spain’s top 4. Malaga are by no means out of the running for fourth spot, but they’re also far from assured of a place in the top 6 having picked up just 1.36 points per game since the turn of the year.

Though their prowess in the final third has diminished a little, it is Malaga’s defensive record that has taken the biggest hit, conceding over twice as many league goals per game in 2013 (1.43 to 0.71).

Stoke (Team Rating Decrease: -0.27)

When Potters fans sung in the New Year none would have expected the misery that lie ahead of them, as spirits were high with the side sitting pretty in 8th. Pulis side now find themselves in the thick of a relegation battle and due to some truly awful form, one of the favourites to fill the third slot in the drop zone.

With just 5 points from 13 league games in 2013 and a solitary win against bottom club Reading, Stoke are now on the slippery of slopes towards the trap door, and their poor run shows no signs of abating.

Though there has clearly been a real slump in the side’s defensive solidity, conceding a goal more per game on average this year (1.85) it is an inability to score at the other end that could cost them dear. With just 7 league goals this year, Stoke really are in big trouble.

Inter (Team Rating Decrease: -0.27)

Defeat to in-form Cagliari at the weekend realistically ended any hope of Inter returning to the Champions League, and Andrea Stramaccioni’s side now face an uphill task to rank among Serie A’s top 5 this season, with the absence of the Nerazzurri’s three main strikers through injury likely to see their struggles continue.

Inter were just 1 point behind second placed Napoli at the turn of the year, with the Partenopei now opening a 13 point lead, while fierce rivals Milan have picked up 17 more points in the league in 2013. Defensive injuries have seen their tackling (27.1 to 23.1) and interception (17 to 12.9) averages drop significantly, and were they to fail to overturn a deficit to Roma in the Coppa Italia this week, the fans would probably rather this season came to an abrupt end.