League Focus: How Many Points Will it Take to Win the Premier League Title?

With 60% of the season played and 15 games remaining, Leicester City lead the league with 47 points. Both elements of that are surprising: since the Premier League switched to its present 20-team format in 1995, there have only been two occasions when the leaders at this stage of the season had fewer than 47 points. Not since 2002/03 has the leader at this stage had fewer than 50 points. What, then, does that mean in terms of the title race?

If Leicester keep going at their present rate, they would finish the season on 78 points. In 2013/14 that wouldn't even have been enough to take fourth. It would be the joint second–lowest points tally ever to win the league, joint with Arsenal in 1998 and ahead only of Manchester United's success with 75 points in 1997.

Arsenal lay fifth at this stage in 1997/98 with 41 points but then embarked on a run of eight successive clean sheets. They won 13 of 14 games and had the title wrapped up before losing their last two matches. The year before that, United had 44 points at this stage and as everybody else fell away, had as good as won the title by the beginning of May, when they drew three successive games.

As mentioned, you have to look back to 2002/03 to find the last leader to have fewer than 50 points at this stage. Arsenal then had 49 points and were five points clear of Manchester United, but United won 15 of their final 18 games to take the title, finishing with 83.

Only three times in the past 20 years has the leader at this stage had fewer than Leicester's 47 points. In 2001/02 United were top of a bunched table with 45 points, but Arsenal, having been a point back, won their last 13 games to streak through to the league title. United had only 44 points in 1998/99 but went unbeaten in their final 20 games to take the title on the final day of the season, while in 1996/97, United again had 44 points after 23 games and, despite winning only half of their last ten games, took the title by seven clear points.

1996/97 is the only season, in other words, when, after a start like this season's, a team hasn't put a run together to surge through to the title. For all their flaws, it's just about possible that Arsenal or Manchester City could do something similar this season. But then, given how they're playing, given the weird defensive laxity that every club seems to be suffering, it really doesn't feel at this stage as though that's likely.

But let's imagine that the side that ends up as champions, even if it doesn't suddenly reel off a string of consecutive victories, at least produces average title-winning form across the rest of the season. Over the past 20 years, the champions have averaged 2.26 points per game. If Arsenal or City manage that from now, they would end up with 34 more points. That means they'd finish with 78 points, which is what Leicester will get if they just keep going as they are.

Claudio Ranieiri has set a target of 79 points for his side and that may well be enough to win them the league. It certainly makes sense for other teams to have that figure in mind. Could Tottenham get the 37 points they'd need from the last 15 games? It's not impossible. It's doubtful that Manchester United could get 42, though.

This has not been in any sense a predictable season, but it looks now as though there are only four teams in the race for the title. There could be a surge from Arsenal or City, but the indications are that 80 points would win it – the same as United in 2010/11. To put that in context, though, that's the only time in the past 11 years that the champions have ended up with fewer than 86 points.

What will the winning points tally this season, and who will achieve it? Let us know in the comments below