Who will win the Premier League's golden boot this season?
The FA Cup returns again this weekend as domestic league duties take a backseat before resuming with a double game week next week. Almost every result went in Chelsea’s favour last weekend, with a late Alexis Sanchez penalty ensuring there remained some semblance of a title race. The Blues, though, still sit eight points clear of the Gunners at the top of the table and are widely expected to land domestic glory in Antonio Conte’s debut campaign in England.
While attention is turned to the FA Cup, it gives us the chance to reflect on a highly competitive race for the Premier League’s golden boot. No fewer than eight players have scored at least 10 top-flight goals this season while two more - Eden Hazard and Sadio Mane - are widely expected to break the double-figure barrier sooner rather than later. Two players have currently struck 11 Premier League goals for the season in Sergio Aguero and Dele Alli.
Alli drew level with Aguero after his header to half the deficit in Tottenham’s 2-2 draw at Manchester City on Saturday evening and with 16 games of the campaign still to run, the youngster has already bettered last season’s return of 10 goals. However, while Alli has eight goals in his last six top-flight outings, it remains to be seen whether the 20-year-old can sustain his fine goalscoring form between now and the end of the season. Aguero may have faltered of late, but he indeed has a better chance of earning the accolade than his Spurs counterpart.
For a player of his calibre to have only scored one goal in 2017 is a surprise to say the least. Yet, for a striker who has started just 14 of 22 Premier League games this term, his is still a hugely impressive return. What’s more, of those to score 15 or more league goals since the 2011/12 season, Aguero has hit the back of the net more frequently (once every 109 minutes) than any other player. A respectable conversion rate of 17.6% in that time has dropped to 15.1% this season though, which is the worst of those to score 10 or more league goals. Nevertheless, while he and City may be struggling, you wouldn’t want to bet against the 28-year-old topping the Premier League scoring charts for the second time in his career.
The Argentine hitman sits just the solitary goal behind Jermain Defoe and Romelu Lukaku having both struck 12 times this term. However, like with Alli, Defoe’s efforts to top the scoring charts will surely be difficult to sustain. 12 goals for a Sunderland side that has scored just 20 times in the Premier League this term is an impressive return to say the least, but while the experienced England international has the means to put opposition defences to the sword, of his 12 goals, five have been from the penalty spot; only James Milner (6) has scored more spot kicks in England’s top tier this term.
Lukaku, meanwhile, often exhausts his total goal tally in the first half of the season, largely due to a lack of competition and backup for a starting spot. In his three full seasons for Everton, the Belgian has struggled to make an impact in the second half of each campaign. In the 2013/14 season, Lukaku scored just 6 of his 15 Premier League goals from New Year’s Day onwards, with that beginning a trend in the 2014/15 campaign (4 of 10 after New Year’s Day) and the 2015/16 season (3 of 18 after New Year’s Day). The 23-year-old has two goals in three top-flight outings in 2017 though, so there is reason to suggest he could be about to buck the trend. With a conversion rate of 21.4% currently his highest in the last five league seasons, Ronald Koeman looks to be bringing out the best in Lukaku as the Toffees continue their assault on a European finish.
That brings us to last season’s golden boot winner in Harry Kane after the Spurs striker bagged a hat-trick against West Brom to take his total for the campaign for 13. Kane netted 25 times in England’s top tier last term to top the scoring charts, though his chances of replicating the feat were hindered following an ankle injury sustained in the 1-0 win over Sunderland earlier in the season. Tottenham’s form dipped in the wake of the 23-year-old’s absence and it’s no coincidence that Mauricio Pochettino’s side have improved following Kane’s return to the starting XI. That he missed five games through injury and is still just two goals off the top of the scoring chart is a testament to his goalscoring ability.
Furthermore, as a traditionally slow starter, Kane still has as many goals at this stage of the season as he had last term, and from six fewer appearances. It remains to be seen whether he can reach the 25-goal barrier for a second successive campaign, but with a conversion rate of 24.5% - the best of those to score 10 or more league goals this term - and Spurs left to play just one of the current top six away from home before the end of the campaign, it’s a feat that is certainly attainable for Kane.
As the third top goalscorer in the league with 14 goals to his name, it’s certainly been a debut campaign to remember for Zlatan Ibrahimovic. What’s more is that the powerhouse Swede could have scored more than the notable tally having missed more clear-cut goalscoring opportunities (12) than any other Premier League player this term. The 35-year-old has had more shots (80) than any other player in the league, with Ibrahimovic incredibly confident in his goalscoring ability, though a 17.5% conversion could be bettered considering the number of golden opportunities he has missed.
With a tad more composure it’s possible that Ibrahimovic could be the top goalscorer in the Premier League this season, but that accolade is currently shared between Diego Costa and Alexis Sanchez. The duo netted vital goals for Chelsea and Arsenal respectively at the weekend to take their totals for the season to 15. Alexis is two goals from his best ever Premier League return and it’s clear that Arsene Wenger’s decision to re-deploy the Chilean as the club’s lead striker has reaped the benefits.
Costa’s form is notable considering how close he was to leaving last summer. The Spain international pined for a move back to Atletico Madrid, only for Conte to convince him to stay in London and Chelsea are benefitting. He’s scored 32% of their 47 league goals this term as he leads the line with aplomb. The Premier League is renowned for their array of striking talent and those in pursuit of the golden boot aren’t disappointing. It’s a battle that looks set to go to the wire and one that will be closely monitored as those in contention strive to end the campaign as the Premier League’s hotshot hitman.
Of those mentioned above, Kane has the best minutes per goal return (one goal every 111.5 minutes) this season and with he starting to fire on all cylinders, it wouldn't be a shock to see him take the award once more, even if he sits two goals off tthe top of the charts. That being said, Costa (117.9), Aguero (120.3) and Alexis (125.1) are breathing down his neck in this race in a pursuit of individual glory that is as tight as it is entertaining.
