League Focus: MLS Eastern Conference Title Contenders Compared

Major League Soccer is notoriously difficult to predict and this season has proved no different.
 
While only six points separate the top five in the West the Seattle Sounders, Real Salt Lake and the Los Angeles Galaxy have distinguished themselves as clear favourites for the regular season title. No such distinction is evident in the Eastern Conference.
 
The New York Red Bulls might occupy top spot, but their tendency to throw a game every so often has sabotaged their season. Mike Petke’s side have lost just two of their last 10 league fixtures, but those defeats came against struggling Chivas USA and the somewhat mediocre Columbus Crew.
 
The Montreal Impact and Sporting Kansas City have also suffered from the same affliction. Sporting Park is no longer the formidable fortress it once was, having lost at home four times so far this season, with the Impact suffering a concerning dip in form over the summer.
 
A training ground spat involving Thierry Henry had the potential to de-rail the Red Bulls’ title charge, but the incident appears to have had the opposite effect, acting as a watershed in the team’s season.
 
Since losing to Chivas USA the Red Bulls have recorded three successive wins, against DC United, the Houston Dynamo and Toronto FC. Such a response indicates the perennial under-achievers might be made of sterner stuff this year but their inconsistency remains an obvious flaw. Play-off season doesn’t tolerate surprise defeats.
 
What is fascinating about the Red Bulls’ improvement under Petke this season is that they don’t appear particularly adept at any one aspect of the game, instead proving functionally adequate across the board. At the back New York concedes an average of 13 shots per game, ranking them fifth worst in the East, while in attack they average just 11.9 attempts on goal. Only DC United, Toronto FC and the New England Revolution maintain a lower average in their conference. Yet Petke keeps leading his team to wins and holds a three-point advantage over the rest.
 
The Red Bulls’ apparent mediocrity in all columns, besides the wins and points tally – the most important one - demonstrates just how small the margins are at the top of the Eastern Conference. In fact, such is the competitiveness of MLS this year all but three teams (Chivas USA, DC United and Toronto FC) will be aiming to make the play-offs.
 
The Houston Dynamo’s chances of mounting a genuine challenge in the East look slim but coach Dominic Kinnear has built a career in MLS on the basis of his ability to tune his teams’ performance levels towards the play-offs. That reputation could be under threat this year.
 
Despite their undeniable MLS Cup pedigree the Dynamo are more likely to be drawn into a battle for play-off places with the Philadelphia Union, the Chicago Fire and the New England Revolution than a race for the title with New York, Sporting KC and Montreal and the Western contenders.

 
Montreal’s reliance on Marco Di Vaio, the league’s top scorer with 18 goals, will be of particular interest next season, with the Italian veteran hinting his stay at the club won’t stretch beyond this season. For the time being the Impact have built their attacking line around him.
 
Indeed Di Vaio has contributed 39.1% of his side’s goals this year (the highest percentage in MLS) and while the Impact might average only 12.3 attempts on goal per game (ranking them 13th league-wide) their average of 5.4 shots on target per game is the highest in MLS. Opposition keepers are kept busiest when playing Montreal.
 
Marco Schallibaum currently resides over the East’s in-form team, having won three and lost just two of their last six MLS fixtures, although after such a dominant start their patchy form at Stade Saputo (where they lost last week to Columbus) could undermine their MLS Cup challenge.
 
For Sporting KC their wastefulness in front of goal remains a concern, particularly now that Kei Kamara has left the club, with Peter Vermes’ side averaging the most shots per game of any MLS team, despite only being the league’s sixth top scorers.
 
In fact Sporting KC’s shots on goal average doesn’t even translate into shots on target, averaging just 4.6 per game, ranking them sixth in the corresponding league-wide column. Even when Sporting KC dismantled the Columbus Crew in their last MLS fixture, winning 3-0, they only managed four attempts on target.
 
However, Vermes’ team leads the league in another key column, boasting a higher average of possession than any other team in the East or West. By averaging 56.5% of the play Sporting KC can claim to be MLS’ most technically adept team (although Caleb Porter’s Portland Timbers might have something to say about that).
 
Defensively, Sporting KC also come up strong. Their name occupies one of the top two spots when ranking shots conceded, tackles and interceptions made per game, allowing a league-wide low of just 8.7 efforts on their own goal per game.
 
This defensive resolution is most evident in midfielder Oriol Rosell and defender Aurelien Collin, who both maintain an impressive average of 4.2 interceptions per game. This is integral to Sporting KC’s style, allowing them to break up opposition play and recycle possession, leading to their league-high average share of the ball.
 
Despite missing much of the last couple months due to an injury picked up in the All-Star game Graham Zusi remains crucial to Sporting KC’s attacking play, with his average of 3.2 key passes per game ranking him among the three highest in MLS. His influence on Sporting KC is profound and dictates the performance of his teammates. When he plays well, they play well.
 
Such is Sporting KC’s dominance across the statistical columns they even average the highest percentage of aerial duels won (55.7%) across the league, and boast the highest WhoScored.com rating (6.91) in the East.
 
Statistically speaking, Sporting KC appear the most accomplished and consistent team in the Eastern Conference, and with just three points separating them from leaders New York they might still prove that. But when has MLS ever conformed to reasonable logic?