League Focus: The Serie A Run-In

The end of the season is nearly upon us in Serie A. 

Apart from Juventus, flush with a nine-point lead at the top of the table and poised to retain their title providing that they don't experience an unlikely post-Bayern collapse in the meantime and throw it away as controversially happened under the rain in Perugia in 2000, the positions immediately behind them are anything but decided.

All of which makes for a pretty intriguing run-in and begs the question whose is the easiest and whose is the toughest among the top eight? What stands out from an analysis of the average position of each of their respective upcoming opponents is the window of opportunity apparently open to Fiorentina to still reach the Champions League. 

It's a small one, admittedly. Very small. They're fourth and six points short of the final qualifying berth held by Milan, a considerable margin. Overtaking them is easier said than done. Milan have been the best team in Serie A in the second half of the season, collecting 27 points from 11 games. That's three more than Juventus have achieved over the same period. To elaborate further, Mario Balotelli hasn't been on the losing side in a Serie A game since joining from Manchester City in the January transfer window. 

Milan's run-in, though, is uphill and comes with sizeable obstacles too. The average position of their remaining opponents is 9.2. On paper only Lazio's remaining eight games are harder. This Sunday, they travel to Fiorentina. And this is where there's a chance for their opponents. Fiorentina have the best home record in Serie A, better even than Juventus'. They beat Milan 3-1 at San Siro in November, without Stevan Jovetic, who they'll be missing again at the weekend. 

Even if Milan have become a better team in the meantime, managing to strengthen their weakest link, the defence, which has gone four league games without conceding a goal, there's enough to inspire confidence within Fiorentina. Because were they to win, they would halve that six-point gap in one fell swoop and be hopeful of benefiting from any slip-ups Milan might encounter when hosting Napoli the following week and on their trip to Turin to play Juventus the week after that, not to mention on Roma's visit up north in the penultimate weekend of the campaign. 

It's a big ask. A lot has to go their way and Fiorentina have to take care of business themselves too of course. After Milan, they go to Atalanta and still have to play Roma. But their last three games are against the current bottom three and in descending order too. The average position of their remaining opponents is 13.6. A strong finish looks on the cards. 

The same might be said of Catania. A last minute surge for the Europa League isn't beyond the realm of possibility. Right now, they're eighth and five points behind Lazio in fifth. The question is: can they catch them?  In theory their run-in is the easiest among the top eight. The average position of their remaining opponents is 14th. But there are caveats. 

For instance, this weekend Catania entertain Cagliari at the Massimino and while much of their season has been based around an impressive home record, this could be a trap game for them. Why? Because Cagliari are the third best team in Serie A in the second half of the season, having taken 22 points from 11 games, the sort of form shown by a club in the mix to qualify for the Champions League.

Then there's Catania's other opponents. While three of them arguably have nothing to play for - Chievo, Sampdoria and Torino are practically safe and might well roll over - the other three - Pescara, Palermo and Siena - are in a relegation dogfight. They have to come to the Massimino and encounters with them could go one of two ways. Either they'll fight like hell to stay up, as you imagine Palermo will in the Sicilian derby, a game they won earlier in the season, or they'll capitulate and succumb to their fate, which you'd expect from Pescara who are as good as gone already.

A lot depends on Catania's motivation too, though. This time last year they all but went on holiday once their own survival was guaranteed. Whether coach Rolando Maran can get his players to resist that urge remains to be seen. Breaking the 50-point barrier is a stated objective of the club and it may serve to keep their focus. After that, though, is the prospect of qualifying for the Europa League enough to maintain it further?

As touched upon earlier, Lazio's run-in is the most arduous among the top eight. Their upcoming opponents have an average position of 8.2. Yet if you look at their record in the first half of the season against those remaining teams, which include Roma, Juventus, Udinese, Parma, Bologna, Inter, Samp and Cagliari, they did manage to take a remarkable 20 points from them.

Still, there is a possibility that they might fall away. As in recent years, that has already started happening over the spring on account of injuries and fatigue. They're 16th in the second half of the season. But striker Miroslav Klose is back fit for the final stretch and so too is captain Stefano Mauri. Lazio have the Rome derby on Monday, a fixture they've triumphed in on the last three occasions, though, it must also be said, they've never won this season after an away trip - like last night's to Fenerbahçe - in the Europa League.

That in itself is an opportunity for Roma to hold off Catania, maybe overtake Inter and draw level with Lazio on 50 points. Their run-in is far from easy, though, and, irrespective of the Aurelio Andreazzoli effect, they certainly like to make things difficult for themselves, as was apparent in last weekend's 2-0 defeat to relegation threatened Palermo. The final four games in particular look testing, as Roma have to go to Fiorentina and Milan before then hosting Napoli on the final day. 

The team you worry for most, however, are sixth-placed Inter. Level on points with Lazio and just one behind Fiorentina, their run-in is better than the former's and Roma's. The average position of their remaining opponents is 11.1 compared with 8.6 and 10.1. A canny victory over Samp earlier this week has kept them in the mix to qualify for the Europa League again. 

Still you get the impression that their season was compromised in January when Walter Samuel, who's now back, got hurt and an adequate deputy for Diego Milito, who suffered a season-ending knee injury the following month, wasn't found. Tommaso Rocchi was a token gesture, not a serious attempt at addressing the issue. Without a natural centre-forward, Inter have had to make do with a pair of second strikers used to playing off the line, rather than leading it. 

Rodrigo Palacio has stepped into the breach, scoring 22 goals, of which 10 have come in 2013 and eight since Milito's injury. So it's a huge blow that he is now expected to be out for the next three weeks with a muscle tear. 

To make matters worse, Inter's record against their forthcoming opponents in the first half of the season was disappointing. They took just eight points from games against Atalanta, Cagliari, Parma, Palermo, Napoli, Lazio, Genoa and Udinese. It was the beginning of their poor run after the high of ending Juventus' unbeaten record in the league at 49 matches in November. As for the second half of the season, well, Inter are 13th. With summer not far off, things look bleak again for them. 

All told, there promises to be plenty of rise and fall, to say nothing of thrills and spills in the run-in. It should make for a captivating watch.