Match Focus: The Champions League Final - Five Key Issues
The Champions League final this weekend, the first ever between two teams from the same city, presents Atlético with the chance to complete a truly astounding season against their Madrid rivals by adding a European trophy to the league crown they won against the odds last week. Despite coming through the whole competition undefeated, Diego Simeone's are still the underdogs, but they have proven their pedigree time and again this season and certainly shouldn't be written off.
Can Atleti cope without Costa?
The biggest question mark surrounding the fixture is the fitness and availability of Atlético's talismanic forward Diego Costa. Back in training but doubtful for the game with the hamstring injury that forced him off in the early stages of the draw at Camp Nou last week, Costa may be absent from the starting lineup for only the 11th time in all competitions this season.
Atleti can, though, take solace from their record without the forward so far this season. Aside from two comfortable wins over Segunda B side Sant Andreu, Diego Simeone has overseen wins over the likes of Zenit St Petersburg, Porto and Barcelona without his main goalscorer this season. In fact, his team have lost only 1 of the 8 games against top tier sides that Costa has missed this season and though that came against Real Madrid, it was in the second leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final against a severely weakened Atlético side, who were only downed by two Cristiano Ronaldo penalties.
That is by no means to downplay the importance of Costa. He does a great deal of vital work for the team, both on and off the ball, and Atleti simply have no player that can directly replace him. Nonetheless, the players and Simeone know exactly the job he does and his teammates raise their game accordingly when he is missing. If he does indeed sit out this Saturday, that alone is not reason enough to write his side off.
Stopping Cristiano
Atlético have bigger fish to fry at the other end of the pitch, where stifling the impact of a certain Cristiano Ronaldo is top of the agenda. The 2013 Ballon d'Or winner has scored 37 goals in his last 29 Champions League appearances and in the process he has broken the individual record for goals in a single season in the competition's current format (16).
The equaliser in a 2-2 draw at the Vicente Calderon in March was Ronaldo's fourth in his last 5 games against their Madrid rivals, taking his overall tally to 12 in 13 appearances against Atlético, meaning he only has a better record against 4 other teams when playing in Real Madrid colours.
There is little secret to his powers, and Simeone will set his team up with that in mind. Last time the teams met it was Gabi that played on the right side of defensive midfield and helped team up with Juanfran to stop the winger. Koke and Raúl Garcia interchanged between right and central positions higher up the pitch but both were key without the ball too; Koke made more tackles than any other player on the pitch (5). They managed to quell him for a good 82 minutes before he eventually found space infield to score. Work rate and shape are vital to Atlético's chances of stopping Ronaldo, and they will need every player to contribute.
Can Bale do it on the big stage?
The problem with facing Real Madrid is that once you deal with stopping the best player on the planet, you have the most expensive one to contend with. Gareth Bale will line up on the opposite flank just over a month after tearing down the Barcelona wing to score a late winner in the Copa del Rey final, but questions still remain as to his impact in the biggest games.
As good as that strike was, it was his only goal in 6 games against Atlético or Barcelona this season, while he also only provided 1 assist in those matches. An average rating of 6.78 in the 5 meetings prior to the cup final highlights just how peripheral he has been in some of the biggest games he'll have played in. So often for Tottenham he was the difference, but seems to be somewhat thrown by the daunting challenge of coming out of Ronaldo's shadow.
However, that he produced that moment of magic shows the kind of thing he can do even if he spends large parts of the game uninvolved. He will be best suited to the game if Real can invite Atleti out a little to leave space in behind. If that is afforded to Bale and Madrid, there will be no defender able to halt him when he finds his stride.
Will Xabi Alonso's absence be crucial?
Asier Illarramendi was purchased last summer with a view to eventually replacing Xabi Alonso at the base of Real Madrid's midfield, and with statistically calculated strengths including passing and tackling he is, on paper at least, a good fit for the role. With Alonso suspended for the final, the youngster, who has not started many of his team's big games this season, is said to be likely to be thrown in at the deep end.
With a 90.4% pass success rate in Champions League games this season and averaging 2.8 tackles per 90 minutes, he works well alongside Luka Modric, looking to win possession and get the ball to the Croatian who will in turn distribute the ball towards Madrid's vast array of attacking talent. However, his inexperience could count against him up against a physical Atlético side, fired up for what is arguably the biggest game in their history, and he could be overawed by the occasion.
Another option is the recently returned Sami Khedira, who less than two hours of action under his belt since coming back from a lengthy layoff, though he is vastly more experienced than Illarramendi and that will could weigh in his favour. Lacking match fitness and having recorded uninspiring ratings of just 6.29 and 6.31 in his two appearances since overcoming injury - one of which came in a 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo - he might not quite be ready for this big a game.
Courtois vs Casillas
It is credit to Iker Casillas that he has persuaded Carlo Ancelotti that he is still the man for the job between the posts in a Champions League final despite losing the first-choice spot to Diego López this season. The Spain no. 1 will line up for Real having only played 14 times in the league and Europe this season, but having kept 5 clean sheets in 7 appearances, making more saves (44) than any other goalkeeper in the Champions League, his continued pedigree will mean the defence can be confident of the ability he retains.
At the opposite end of the pitch there will be a stopper at the opposite end of his career. 22-year-old Thibaut Courtois is widely regarded as one of the best young goalkeepers around and he deserves the chance to play in such a big game this weekend despite his tender years. He is difficult to beat, boasting one of the best save success rates in the Champions League this season (85.3%) and commands his area, successfully claiming more crosses than any other 'keeper (18).
However, as he showed by charging off his line against Malaga recently, he has the propensity to make costly errors (that one allowed Samuel to score and so nearly cost his team the title), while he was also responsible for the only error that led to a goal that have Atlético committed in the Champions League this season. That came in the only game in which they dropped points in the group stage when he allowed Toby Alderweireld's looped attempt at a clearance to float over him and into the net. The grandest of stages awaits him this weekend and he will need to get the better of any nerves he might, quite reasonably, have.
How do you think the Champions League final will pan out? What do you think is the most important clash? Let us know in the comments below