Team Focus: Everton's Necessary New Identity Under Martínez
On the face of it, it seems an absurd question. Have Everton improved this season? As David Moyes has toiled at Manchester United, struggling under the scrutiny of the global media as results have gone horribly against him, it has only seemed to emphasise his difficulties that Roberto Martínez has been making such a good fist of the Everton job.
The assumption had been that Moyes had done a startlingly good job on a limited budget at Everton, but Martínez's easy manner and the stylish nature of some of his side's football gave rise to the question of whether Moyes had actually begun to hold Everton back.
Certainly some Everton fans for a while had been frustrated by Moyes's instinctive negativity, which was perhaps partly to blame for Everton's dreadful record against the top sides under him, a point underlined when Martínez's Everton won away to Moyes's Manchester United. That's how media narratives work, present problems seeming to undermine past achievement. But is it true?
Let's start with the basics. Last season Everton finished sixth, scoring 1.45 goals per game, conceding 1.05 goals per game and averaging 1.66 points per game. This season, with nine games remaining, they lie sixth, two points behind Tottenham, who have played two games more, and eight behind Arsenal, who have played one game more. United are three points back, having played a game more.
Martínez has insisted the race for fourth is still on, but the probability is they will finish either fifth or sixth and so qualify for the Europa League (because Swansea and Martínez's Wigan won the two domestic cups last season, sixth place in the league did not bring entry to the Europa League last season; Manchester City's victory in the Capital One Cup means that this season it will). They score 1.48 goals per game on average, concede at 1.03 goals per game and are averaging 1.86 points per game.
A slight upturn in goals scored and a slight downturn in goals conceded has brought a significant increase in points gained. Projecting for the rest of the season - although bearing in mind they still have Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal to play - would bring Everton to 71 points, eight more than last year but which, last season, would still have had them sixth.
What, though, of the underlying trends? What stands out when comparing last season to this is the very obvious change in style revealed by the figures. Last season, Everton made just 5.3 dribbles per game; this season that figure is up to 12.1. Last season they won 18.6 aerial battles; this season the figure is down to 14.4. Pass completion is up from 79.4% to 83.4% and possession from 52.9% to 56.5%. It's all as you'd expect for a team that has become less direct in approach.
More surprising though, is that shots per game have gone down this season, from 16.7 to 15.2, and shots on target from 5.4 to 5.3. Shots conceded, meanwhile, has crept up slightly, from 11.9 to 12.3. It's telling that the percentage of shots on target has gone up, suggesting that the type of chance being created is more productive - again, you'd expect that from a less direct approach; this season there will have been fewer crosses flashing across the box - but still, it seems anomalous that Moyes's side created 10% more chances per game than Martínez's. Perhaps, he may reflect, if he'd had Romelu Lukaku up front rather than a misfiring Nikica Jelavic, more of the chances his side created would have been converted and his results might have looked better.
The figures suggest that Everton have improved under Martínez, but the upturn is nowhere near as dramatic as first impressions may suggest.
Can Everton still finish fourth under Martínez this season? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below