League Focus: The Premier League Relegation Run-In

We are now well and truly in the midst of the so-called 'run-in', a nervy time for all but the middle clump of teams in leagues across the world. The teams above the middle section chase European qualification or promotion, and while teams at the very top usually chase the title, this season, it is surely already decided in the Premier League, regardless of the result in tonight's Manchester derby. At the bottom though, there is still a great deal to play for and a whole lot to be decided.

Mathematically, Sunderland and Wigan, in 17th and 18th place respectively, can even catch Liverpool in 7th, whilst only 8 points separate those teams and Fulham in 10th. That is how close it remains, as the relegation battle reaches what promises to be a dramatic crescendo in the coming weeks. Of course, though, there is more to the run-in than the mere standings can supply. Remaining opponents, for one, make a huge difference to the chances of each team attaining survival. As things stand, however unlikely it may be for Newcastle to go down, none of the bottom 8 are safe yet.

The Magpies, with 9 points from their last 6 matches, have gone a long way to staving off the threat of relegation in recent weeks, and much of their success has come at home. They have won their last 4 on the trot at St James' Park whilst losing their last 4 on the road. In fact, only Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea have won more home games this season than Newcastle, while no team has won fewer away games than them. With 8 points from the corresponding fixtures against the 6 teams they are still to play this season and the easiest run-in of the bottom 8 sides (average position 11.3), a meteoric collapse would be needed for them to go down.

Norwich have a marginally tougher last 6 games, but having won only once in their last 15 outings they have slowly slipped into the relegation mire. 8 points from their 6 games against the teams they are yet to play should see them safe, and they should really be looking at the game at home to Reading as a time to pick up an important 3 points. What is key for Norwich is that they do not lose all that often. They have done so fewer times than any other team in the bottom half of the table, and have drawn more matches (14) than any other side in Europe's top 5 leagues this season, so they should be safe. Just below the Canaries, though, Stoke are in a perilous position with their form doing them very little in the way of favours.

At the halfway point in the season, Stoke were 8th in the table with a respectable 28 points, and were probably looking at a late push for Europe rather than over their shoulders at the relegation zone 13 points below them. 13 games later and the Potters are only 6 points better off and face a nerve-shredding final few weeks of the season. Like Newcastle, Stoke are overly reliant on their home form, but in their final games at the Brittania, they host Man Utd, Norwich and Spurs, who have an average position of 6.3 in the table. On the road, meanwhile, Stoke's opponents average 15.7th place in the table, but Stoke have only scored 9 away goals all season, and can by no means rely on picking up results against the lesser opposition they will be facing on the road. With only 1 point from their last 6 outings, Tony Pulis will need to change his tactics, and soon. Those employed in the game against Aston Villa this weekend did not work, with balls into the box coming from deep rather than high, wide positions from which they are most dangerous. Now only 3 points above the relegation zone, they are in real danger of being sucked into the scrap.

Their victors this week, Aston Villa, seem to be hitting form just when it counts, with 3 wins from the last 4 games taking them out of the bottom 3. However, having picked up just 4 points from their corresponding games earlier in the season against their final 6 opponents, their job is far from done. Paul Lambert's long-term vision for the club of focusing on youth might just be paying off, with the ever-present Matt Lowton impressing in recent weeks, most notably with his wonder strike at Stoke this weekend to put his side back in front. There are probably 2 games in Villa's run-in that they are likely to lose - United away and Chelsea at home - so Villa will be concentrating on their other games, and their current form suggests they will get more than 4 points when they play those teams this time around, and should stay up resultantly.

Paulo Di Canio nearly inspired an unlikely win at Chelsea in his first game in charge this weekend, but in the end, Sunderland instead succumbed to a ninth straight game without a win. With no on-form goalscorer they look in real trouble, and while they gained 5 points from games against their remaining opponents earlier in the season, those results came when the Black Cats were on - relatively at least - significantly better form. Their terrible run shows little sign of abating, though they will be looking at a home game against travel-sick Stoke for an all-important win, though even that might not be enough given Wigan's game in hand.

Whilst the Latics do possess the upper hand of an extra game to play, what is most notable about their run-in, is the difficulty of it. Aston Villa's remaining opponents, with an average position of 10.5, is the second toughest behind Wigan, who face teams with an average position of 8th in the table. They still have to face 3 of the top 5, whilst Villa and West Ham are the only bottom-half teams they are yet to face. They have hope. though. 10 points from their last 6 games gives them the best form of the bottom 8 teams, whilst they took 9 points from the corresponding fixtures earlier in the season, which is more than any of the other surrounding sides; a repeat of that feat would take them to the magic 40 point mark. They have made a habit of making their escape as late as possible, and so another dramatic tale of survival could well be on the cards.

Way, way behind at the bottom, are QPR and Reading, who are both as good as relegated, 7 and 8 points, respectively, off safety. QPR's run-in does not look particularly tough, and Harry Redknapp had demanded 5 wins before their draw with Wigan. A tad ambitious from their manager, maybe, given that his side hadn't won against any of their remaining opponents earlier in the season, and in fact only gained a meagre 2 points from their remaining 6 opponents when they last faced off. They need to catch 2 teams above them, and with Bobby Zamora now suspended, they face one hell of a task if they are to do it. 

Reading prop up the table, and after 7 straight losses, most fans are just counting down the days until their relegation is confirmed. The 6 points they managed this season against the teams they have yet to play for a second time is probably the most they can expect this time around. They are rock-bottom and, as we well know, will not survive this season.