Team Focus: Stagnating Newcastle in Danger of Losing Their Way with Pardew
The bare stats say enough, but haven’t yet led to the statement Newcastle United fans want most of all. They are clearly a club in crisis and great difficulty, but not yet looking for a manager. The question is whether the situation is genuinely terminal, and if it will finally lead to the termination of Alan Pardew’s contract. Right now, it doesn’t look good by any means: bottom of the table, no wins, two draws, just three goals scored and nine conceded.
The dismal and listless 4-0 defeat at Southampton seemed to be a nadir, and brought renewed speculation about Pardew’s future. Rather than lead to a sacking, however, it has so far only resulted in more controversy between the local media and the club. Another publication has been banned in the last week, taking the number to seven.
As perilous and chaotic as the situation currently seems, there’s still that odd sense of stasis that has surrounded the club for the last two years. Nothing seems to be changing, other than the danger of the league situation.
That’s the other thing about Pardew, though. He has proven himself something of a survivor, especially during his time at Newcastle. You only have to look at how his side recovered from a near relegation battle in 2012/13, to return to what seemed a more normal sense of mid-table solidity last season.
The wonder at the moment is whether that stability is now leading to stagnation and the start of a real fall - the sort of thing that has been coming for a while? Is four games too little to judge, or is it all running out of steam? What do the deeper stats say?
What are the more intricate differences between now and - for example - Pardew’s absolute peak from 2011/12, when Newcastle United finished a surprising fifth?
Even in that campaign, it must be said, the Londoner never had a hugely clear or particularly sophisticated style. Pardew could not be described as a conservative or truly pragmatic coach, but there have never been too many dimensions to his football. A trend of his career has been his teams initially finding success with one clear attacking tactic, only to be found out and then have to readjust with something similar but different. That was precisely the case in 2011/12, when Papiss Cissé replaced Demba Ba as the primary striker and scorer, just when opposition defences seemed to have worked out how to handle the latter. The form was just about maintained, if with some degree of fortune too.
Otherwise, Pardew has always had something of a generalist overall approach, and that is one thing that has remained consistent between 2011/12 and this season. Newcastle are still in mid-table for pretty much all of the main playing stats. They are mid-ranked for everything from possession (seventh at 54.5%) to highest shots conceded (12th at 11.3).
As such, it is not like Pardew has changed too much in terms of style, even if personnel have drastically changed. Where the real difference comes is in application and edge. That gives rise to real worry. Newcastle are making fewer tackles (16.8 per game), committing fewer fouls (8.8) and fewer interceptions (12.8) than most in the Premier League, as well as their 2011/12 side. They are also much less sharper in front of goal, with the rate of shots on target radically dropping to 3 per game.
Given that they are related to application and aggression, those specific figures indicate that Newcastle’s poor start is down to more than bad luck or just bad games. They are not doing some jobs as well as they used to.
This also points to the deeper questions about Pardew’s reign as manager. It is his job to derive that level of application. If he can’t, and this continues, he might really have lost his way.
Do you think Alan Pardew should be sacked or should Newcastle stick with him? Let us know in the comments below
