The Best Bet: Iceland to pose problems for underprepared Argentina

Backed in as fifth favourites ahead of the finals in Russia, Argentina’s World Cup pedigree is unquestionable but they are far from the infallible unit that the odds suggest for their tournament opener with Iceland.

Jorge Sampaoli’s side are of course the favourites for Saturday’s encounter, and rightly so given the talent at the coach’s disposal, but a best price of 1.39 on an Argentina victory offers little to no value whatsoever. Iceland, meanwhile, are as far out as 12.00 with Betfred, while the draw at 5.50 with bet365 is also huge.

The South Americans have been patchy at best over the past 12 months, with three consecutive draws against Uruguay, Venezuela and Peru leaving the giants of world football needing a Lionel Messi hat-trick to earn a spot in Russia in their final qualifier in Ecuador. Since then they’ve suffered friendly defeats to Nigeria and Spain, conceding a combined ten goals, and with just one match since March coming against Haiti, their preparations have been far from ideal.

Iceland, it should be said, have been poor since qualifying for their first ever World Cup too, but did so by topping a group including experienced major tournament nations in the form of Croatia, Turkey and Ukraine. When it has mattered most their defensive organisation has been superb but one shouldn’t underestimate their ability to find a breakthrough at the opposite end either.

Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches and know that they will probably need to do so once more this weekend to come away with any points. Much was made of their defensive solidity in France two years ago, but in truth they failed to keep a clean sheet at the tournament and scored in each of their five outings (8 times in total).

There are a couple of good value bets to consider then, with Iceland +1.5 a worthwhile bet at 1.89 with Black Type, but my top tip would be on both teams to score. Argentina’s defence is shaky enough to back in their opponents to find a way past Willy Caballero between the posts but the favourites quality should tell in an entertaining game, and a price of 2.69 with Marathon Bet is beyond tempting on goals at both ends.