Assessing the hottest ever Championship Golden Boot race

With just a quarter of the season remaining in the Championship the battle for automatic promotion is really hotting up. Two points separate the top three, with West Brom a further four points back, but that is not even the tightest race still to run. 

It’s a race that is traditionally hard-fought but one that doesn’t always require a particularly impressive strike rate to win, which is what has made this season’s contest all the more exciting. To have four players reach 20 goals already is unheard of in a league in which the record goal haul in a season is just 30, despite a campaign running for 46 matches. 

With that recored in mind - set by Glenn Murray for Crystal Palace in 2012/13 - it’s not outrageous to say that as many as five players will have designs on matching it at the very least. 

Said quintet of leading scorers in the division are separated by just four goals, each staggered by one from Neal Maupay (19 goals) in fifth to Teemu Pukki (23) in first. 

The former was the early pace setter in a bid to end the campaign as the Golden Boot winner, while the latter has been a consistent source of goals since moving forward into his favoured central striker role midway through September. 

Sandwiched between the two as things stand are Billy Sharp (22 goals), Tammy Abraham (20) and the real latecomer to the race in the form of Birmingham’s Che Adams (21). 

Eight games into the campaign the latter had just a single goal to his name, and while the 22-year-old had stretched that tally to 11 at the turn of the year, such a haul from 25 appearances didn’t suggest that the youngster would even be in the running. Along with the four players he now appears to be competing with for the crown, the likes of Dwight Gayle (13), Lewis Grabban and Kemar Roofe (both 14), had found the net more times than the Blues striker.

However, ten goals in just nine league appearances in 2019 highlight that Adams is no longer a dark horse but a very real contender to end the season with the Golden Boot. Pukki’s tally of eight this calendar year is also very strong and given he leads the way, it makes sense that the Finn should be the bookies favourite, but the disparity in odds between the two is huge.

Pukki is priced up at 2.38 with Betfair as things stand, while Adams - just two goals back - is at 11.00. That’s the same price as Maupay who, albeit with a game in hand, is another two back on the Birmingham man, and has just four league goals to his name since the turn of the year by comparison. 

A lazy glance at the scoring charts would suggest that Sharp is indeed the second favourite, as every bookmaker suggests, but there is very little value in the veteran goal-getter for a number of reasons. While he has seven of 22 league goals in 2019, the 33-year-old has failed to find the net in four of his eight outings and, unlike his competitors, has genuine competition for a starting spot for Sheffield United.

Moreover, Sharp’s goal tally against the Blades 12 remaining opponents this season is way back on the rest, scoring just three goals across the respective reverse fixtures. Adams has just six, but that is far more explicable given how many of his goals have come over the past two months, while Maupay has nine and both Pukki and Abraham have an impressive ten. 

The Norwich striker does seem like the worthy front runner as things stand, but Aston Villa’s marksman certainly shouldn’t be discounted. He, after all, wasn’t even involved in the opening six matches of the season, completing his loan move on deadline day, so his strike rate is second only to Pukki. 

A run of three games without a goal has undoubtedly dented the Chelsea graduate’s chances but, with Jack Grealish now back for Dean Smith’s side, Villa are set to receive an injection of creativity and quality that they have lacked for almost three months. The 21-year-old is a decent price as a result, but there is no doubt whatsoever that Adams is the best value on the market. 

Whomever comes out on top, at this stage it would be a surprise if Glenn Murray’s Championship goal record is not beaten.